Budgeting for uncertainty

AS THE annual budget approaches, amid an ongoing state of emergency, the Government faces the renewed challenge of balancing strategic spending with providing relief to ordinary people.

The last time the annual fiscal package was presented during a state of emergency was in 2011.

Back then, the finance minister, Winston Dookeran, opened his presentation with a section entitled “Confronting the Uncertainties.”

In a few weeks’ time, when he rises to speak before MPs, Finance Minister Colm Imbert will be required to take up a similar theme.

As the close of the State’s financial year approaches, the entire Cabinet has been holed up in Tobago for a three-day retreat which began on Wednesday. Details of the agenda have been scant, but it is understood financial matters are being considered, including a review of Government’s performance as well as the fate of recent disbursals from international bodies.

While ministers are taking the opportunity to close ranks and galvanise themselves for the challenges of governance that lie ahead, ordinary citizens are left wondering whether this year’s budget process will make a meaningful difference to their continued plight under what is a dual public health and economic crisis.

If the Cabinet is preparing, citizens are already prepared for what’s likely to occur this time around when the budget debate happens.

Disagreements over speaking times; the invocation of parliamentary rules (accompanied by flagrant disregard for the spirit of open debate); scandalous allegations and counter-allegations; never-ending sparring between MPs and presiding officers; and long speeches that read more like political platform speeches ahead of an election, designed not to account, but rather to get the population to vote at upcoming polls.

The relatively tight-lipped responses thus far on a simple issue like the agenda for Blenheim confirm such expectations in the minds of members of a weary public looking on.

The budget is coming, but will it make a difference?

Meanwhile, the dire need for prudent economic management at this time was underlined by the Central Bank in its latest economic bulletin, released on Independence Day, which should act as a basic blueprint for the Government’s plans.

According to the Central Bank, there is the dangerous possibility that inflation, which has thus far remained under control, could soon gather steam. Food prices have already begun to inch up. The bank also called for “urgent institutional advances” to bolster capacity in order to chart a new path forward for the economy.

The population and the business community are already crying out for relief and for more definitive actions to end the lockdown scenario.

Will the Government succumb to the usual budget temptations?

Or will this be a moment when the budget proves itself truly relevant to improving our shared, uncertain destiny?