Dr Hinds: SoE slowed dramatic rise in covid19 cases

EPIDEMIOLOGIST Dr Avery Hinds said the state of emergency implemented on May 15, eight-hour nightly curfew and additional restrictions which have essentially shut down the business sector, have slowed the number of covid19 cases.

He was speaking at the media conference on Saturday at the Diplomatic Centre, St Ann’s, Port of Spain.

Using graphs, Hinds said the projected data showed that TT would have registered 80,000 cases by now if the latest restrictive measures had not been put in place.

“At the 27th or 28th of May, if we had continued at the speed we were going, we would have already accumulated 40,000 cases. Because exponentials go faster and faster, by this point in time, we would actually be closer to 80,000 (cases) compared to the 25,000 (cases) we are at right now.”

Hinds added that if most recent measures were not implemented and the regular restrictions were in place, covid19 cases would have been in an upward trend of 30,000 cases.

“The measures began to take effect and slow the accumulation of cases. It is not just a mathematical calculation but it translates into suppression of demand on systems, additional abilities for the system to supply the needs of the population and the success of the measures in at least slowing, although not completely stopping or eliminating, but slowing the rise enough for the system to attempt to keep pace.”

The Prime Minister said if government had not taken the necessary measures the death toll would have been greater.

Dr Rowley said, "Had we not intervened...the average number of deaths per day would have been about 100. This is exactly what has happened elsewhere in the world, so we are not making this up from a mathematical curve or from statistical analysis. In fact, to assume 100 (deaths) from 90,000 infected people is to look on the good side, because it could easily be more, because of the effect of the increase."