Battle for Tobago: PNM ahead of PDP in THA election

After weeks of hectic campaigning, tomorrow’s eagerly anticipated Tobago House of Assembly (THA) election will again be a fight between the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) and the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP).

This is the view of political analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath, senior lecturer, Department of Political Science, UWI, St Augustine.

When the House was dissolved on November 17, 2020, the PNM controlled ten of the 12 seats in the THA. The party has led the THA for the past two decades.

Speaking to Sunday Newsday, Ragoonath said while he believes the PNM is ahead in tomorrow’s election, he still thinks the PDP will give the party a fight for the assembly.

Both parties are contesting all 12 seats in the THA.

Ragoonath said he listened to the Prime Minister and PNM Tobago Council political leader Tracy Davidson-Celestine’s addresses at a meeting in Mt Pleasant on Thursday night.

He said they seemed concerned about the voter turnout.

“Listening to them, I felt there was a concern that they will not be able to motivate sufficient people to come out and vote for the PNM. I think that is a concern they may have at this point in time,” he said.

In analysing the data, Ragoonath observed in the last THA election, just under 50 per cent of the electorate voted.

He said when that is compared to previous elections, where there was a 60 and 70 per cent voter turnout, “the fact is that in the last election, we had less than 50 per cent vote.”

Ragoonath also noted in the general election, only about 53 per cent of the electorate voted.

“So, is it that the people are not encouraged to vote for the PNM. I think the PNM is concerned about that. So, it will depend now on what the PDP is doing to being out their supporters, too.”

On the other contenders, Ragoonath said the only one that is likely to make an impact is Tobago Festivals Commission chairman Dr Denise Tsoiafatt Angus.

She is contesting the Scarborough/Calder Hall seat as an independent candidate.

Tsoiafatt Angus ruffled some feathers in the PNM when she filed nomination papers to contest the seat even though the party had reselected incumbent Marslyn Melville Jack.

The women were screened on October 26, 2020 and Melville Jack got the nod.

Tsoiafatt Angus still decided to contest the seat in violation of the PNM’s constitution and has since been expelled.

The former THA presiding officer maintains she is still a PNM member.

Ragoonath said while Tsoiafatt Angus could make an impact, “I am not yet sure she has sufficient support (for an outright victory).

“The impact I think she might make is to make it easier for the PDP to take that seat.”

He recalled in the last THA election, the PNM only won 60 per cent of the vote.

“The mere fact that they won 60 per cent of the vote in the election tells me that if she could take away ten per cent of the vote from the PNM, then the PDP could bring out more of their supporters, then they could slip in.”

Ragoonath said the other candidates contesting the election, Class Action Reform Movement (CARM) leader Ricardo Phillip, Unity of the People leader Nickocy Phillips and independent candidate Anthony Hector, have not made any significant impact.

Ready for the outcome

The candidates, meanwhile, said they are ready for the election.

The PNM’s Davidson-Celestine, whom the PDP has accused of corruption in relation to a stalled zipline project, said the party is confident of victory.

“We are very confident of retaining control of the THA,” she told Sunday Newsday.

“We have done the work on behalf of the people, we have made significant investments in our human development and more than that, we enjoy a level of stability even in the face of world crises.”

Davidson-Celestine, who is contesting the Lambeau/Signal Hill seat, said the party’s candidates are strong and eager to work.

She said one of the things that disappointed her on the campaign, though, is the fact that many people still have not availed themselves of the assembly’s programmes “which can help them to achieve a better future.”

Davidson-Celestine said the situation reflected the need to “embark on a consistent education and communication programme.”

She thanked Tobagonians for their support and criticism during the campaign.

“For me and I am sure all the others, it has been a truly remarkable journey and the start of good things to come.”

PDP deputy leader Farley Augustine, who is seeking a second term to represent the people of Speyside/L’Anse Fourmi/Parlatuvier in the THA, said the party is ready.

“We are ready, ready, ready. Our election day machinery is well-oiled and ready. We are confident and we are pushing through to the end,” he said.

The PDP, though, has not formally presented a manifesto but gave insights into some of the party’s plans at their political meetings.

The PDP has promised to upgrade Scarborough, develop a land use policy and introduce a governance system, enabling the island to see about its own business.

Tsoiafatt Angus expressed confidence she will wrest the Scarborough/Calder Hall seat from Melville Jack.

“The 2021 election will be an historic one where the people of Scarborough/Calder Hall will vote from the heart, for the heart,” she told Sunday Newsday.

“They are voting for the best person they know will provide the best representation.

“They will vote for one of their own to continue a tradition of service with a difference, while building on decades of a family history of service to the wider community. I have been serving all and will continue to serve all.”

Tsoiafatt Angus claimed voters in the area have said they intend to send a clear message to all political parties that they are not to be ignored.

She claimed the voters have said they also intend to “protect their democracy and ensure there will be accountability, transparency and oversight of the administration.”

Tsoiafatt Angus added a vote for her will guarantee that women’s medical concerns, education and youth development are addressed in the THA.

For CARM leader Ricardo Phillip, who is contesting the Buccoo/Mt Pleasant seat, Tobagonians must have a greater say in the island’s development.

“The highpoint of my campaign has been the need for communities to participate in the development of Tobago,” he said.

“I think people feel left out. As a matter of fact, there are people that have been marginalised for 20 years from PNM politics.”

The businessman, who mounted a ground campaign, also accused politicians of making empty promises to voters and perpetuating the dependency syndrome.

“People always have needs and they expect that when you are campaigning and they ask for something, they should get it.

“And that really presents a challenge for one who wants to get a message out and focus on what is important, you have to compete with that kind of nonsense.”

He continued: “That is just a sad reality and it shows there is an absence of real empowerment for communities and young people.”

Unity of the People leader Nickocy Phillips is hoping to win the Buccoo/Mt Pleasant seat.

“Based on my walkarounds over the past few weeks, I am getting a lot of positive reviews,” Phillips said.

“I still visit the homes of people with political flags and they still give me the confidence that at least I am still trying and that is the best I can do.

“I am just awaiting the results on Monday and it is just left to the people to decide who they want as their representative.”

But Phillips stressed representation is not just about an election but “paving a way for the next generation.”

Phillips said, if elected, unemployment will be addressed.

“I am looking at putting a recruiting committee in place to deal with that.”

Phillips said there will also be a road a drainage rehabilitation programme in each village in the electoral district.

He also intends to address “idling on the streets,” particularly among young men.

“I intend to deal strongly with that by putting projects and proposals in place for that.”

Independent candidate Anthony Hector, who was hospitalised recently after suffering a seizure, said he is still contesting the Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden seat.

“My name is already on the ballot paper,” he said.

Hector said before he got ill, he had planned to drive around the electoral district to encourage people to vote.

“But now I will just touch base with my usual internet work.”

The former journalist said as an independent candidate, he had held over 21 meetings in different parts of the large electoral district.

On Saturday, the PNM and PDP held events at Parade Grounds, Bacolet, and the Cyd Gray Stadium, Roxborough, respectively.

And Sunday, both parties are expected to host motorcades throughout Tobago.