Analysts: Tsoiafatt-Angus move could affect PNM

POLITICAL analysts Shane Mohammed and Dr Winford James on Monday said former Tobago House of Assembly (THA) presiding officer Denise Tsoiafatt-Angus's campaign for the THA elections as an independent candidate could have an impact on the PNM.

But they said it is difficult to predict whether her candidacy and/or the actions of PNM Tobago Council leader Tracy Davidson Celestine could cost the PNM the elections on January 25.

Mohammed said, "It is a history-making event. Not every day do you see something like this happening within the PNM."

He placed Tsoiafatt-Angus's breaking ranks with the PNM in the same category as former PNM MPs Dr Rupert Griffith and Dr Vincent Lasse crossing the floor to join the UNC in 1997.

He added, "There is a lot of hype coming into this election in terms of the PNM internal election last year."

Last June, Davidson-Celestine wrested the PNM Tobago's leadership away from then THA chief secretary Kelvin Charles, with the support of defeated leadership candidates Tsoiafatt-Angus and THA Finance Secretary Joel Jack.

Mohammed said there would have been extensive negotiations for Tsoiafatt-Angus to agree to support Davidson-Celestine as PNM Tobago leader He argued that if one of the parties failed to uphold her end of the agreement, "It can cause major fallout."

Mohammed said Davidson-Celestine had upset a number of PNM supporters by supporting Marslyn Melville-Jack as the party's Scarborough/Calder Hall candidate over Tsoiafatt-Angus. There is potential for an upset win by the PDP in the district, he said. But he did not know if this also meant the PDP could win the elections outright.

"The PNM still has a very strong social media presence and the PDP has to pick up its game in that regard."

Whether she wins or loses, Mohammed said Tsoiafatt-Angus could determine the balance of power in the THA.

James cautioned, "This is one seat, and we can't really predict the outcome of the election, based on what may happen in one seat."

He said three of the five PNM party groups in Scarborough/Calder Hall supported Tsoiafatt-Angus.

"Some of them may not vote, may actually abstain from the voting process, or...give their support to the PDP candidate."

He also said, "There are people within the PNM camp who are already thinking of boycotting the election."

Describing Tsoiafatt-Angus's actions as politically unforgivable to PNM, James said. "If she has not 'died' yet, this might be the political death of Dr Angus where the PNM is concerned."

James was uncertain whether she could beat Melville-Jack "but she could make it easier for the PDP to make inroads."

He felt all was not well in the PNM's Tobago camp.

"They're putting up a brave face, but obviously there is going to be some impact. I don't know the extent of the impact."

James said if there were attempts before nomination day on Monday to pacify Tsoiafatt-Angus, those efforts had failed.

"There is no time any more."