Political analysts: Tall task for PDP to beat PNM

THE Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP) has a big challenge ahead of it, trying to unseat the People's National Movement (PNM) in the January 25 Tobago House of Assembly (THA) elections.

The date of the election was announced on Tuesday. Nomination day on January 4. The PNM and PDP have each named candidates for all 12 electoral districts.

Other candidates expected to contest include veteran journalist Anthony Hector (Black Rock/Whim/Spring Garden), Class Action Reform political leader Ricardo Phillip (Buccoo/Mt Pleasant) and Unity of the People's Nickocy Phillips (Buccoo/Mt Pleasant).

Political analyst Dr Winford James believes autonomy, infrastructure and basic utilities will be some of the topics addressed on the campaign trial.

In an interview with Newsday on Wednesday, James noted the alliance that took place between the PDP and Tobago Forwards. The latter's political leader, Pastor Terance Baynes, is a PDP candidate.

James said, “I think they have conceded that the PDP is the vehicle which Tobagonians who are opposed to the PNM might want to use to dislodge the PNM. It is never going to be easy."

He said each party should narrow their focus to the special needs of each electoral district. Although he described it as “mundane matters,” James said each candidate must look at “any issue that they think the electors would be interested in, especially the electors of the particular districts. Districts normally want to have better utilities and amenities.”However, James said the issue of autonomy will again be on the front burner.

The Tobago Self-Government Bill was introduced to Parliament on October 14, after it lapsed in the previous term.

James believes it’s unlikely people will look to the PNM to deliver autonomy.

“Everything swings on autonomy. Tobago cannot develop properly by just piggybacking on, depending on and waiting for the signals from Trinidad."

He added, “Those who are satisfied with the way things have been going, who don't want change or are satisfied with low ceilings of ambitions will vote the PNM, and those who want a new era, a new dawn, would want the PDP, once the ideas are properly articulated."

James believes the THA election being just five months after the PNM retained the Tobago East and West seats, gives the Tracy Davidson-Celestine-led PNM the edge.

“The incumbent had an advantage for a long time. They have an advantage, especially as the opposition has been in disarray. Now, I think they are united now more than they have ever been, that's an advantage if you want to beat the PNM, you cannot be split.”Political analyst Shane Mohammed said the PDP has a good chance, but not good enough to beat the PNM.

He said, “The task before the PDP is really about being able to project a realistic vision for Tobagonians; one that they will see that is achievable and to their benefit. I keep singing the same mantra that Tobago does not need political autonomy (yet), they first need economic autonomy and economic independence. And that only comes with a THA administration that starts working towards greater diversification and maximising on Tobago's resources.”Mohammed said the general election defeat should have taught the PDP some lessons.

“There’s a lot of learning that comes out of the 2020 general election experience, especially for the PDP.

"One, it is not what to say it is how you say it. Tobagonians are a very sensitive grouping of people. They are very, very traditional. And they don't like that bacchanal say-what-you-want-to-say kind of behaviour. "And you will realise that that is not what is practised by the PNM in Tobago over the last 20 years. It's very structured, it's very conservative in that dialogue.“Orville London spoke Tobagonians language, he was able to engage them. And in that regard, anybody who's coming now to overthrow the PNM, they must be able to engender that cool personality, not that I am better than you or not that I am different from you, but that I can relate to you – relatability is important.”He said the decision to move Farley Augustine as the PDP's choice for chief secretary instead of Watson Duke, was an excellent move.

“This is Farley's defining moment. It is his ability to be magnanimous. The very fact that he brought Terance Baynes into it and he showed Tobago that the PDP was able to come into an arrangement and an amalgamation of the opposition forces says something about his personality. It says something about his maturity. He needs to just take that and move it forward and thrust into a greater scheme of things.”Although he said the PDP has a good chance that is looking promising, “at this point, I'm not sure if it is promising enough to win.”