Covid19 deaths up to 79, new cases down 35%

There has been a weekly decrease of 35 per cent in the number of new covid19 cases over the past three weeks says Dr Avery Hinds, technical director of the Ministry of Health Epidemiological Division.

However, deaths continue to rise with fatalities increasing to 79 after three people died on Saturday.

During the Saturday morning virtual covid19 press conference, Hinds said, “We were looking at the comparison between this week and last week, and the comparison between last week with the week before and we saw that, from week before to last week, we saw a 35 per cent decrease; and this week seems set to end on a similar trend of another 35 per cent decrease between last week and this one.”

Using an epidemiological curve from July 20 to October 2, an average of the number of cases from the previous seven days, there has also been a continuing downward trend in the number of new cases. He hoped the trend would continue.

A report from an organisation, Ubilytics, pointed out discrepancies in the number of cases reported and the numbers on the curve. It said up to September 25, 1,216 positive reports were missing from the epidemiological chart presented to the public.

There was a concern that, because cases were missing, the charts were misleading the public. Also, that the incorrect data was causing health professionals to come to incorrect conclusions.

However, Hinds said no cases are missing as the ministry has disclosed the full count of all cases. Instead, a separate data source was used to create the chart, one that would allow health officials to see whether the trends being observing in the number of cases corresponded with what was happening in the general population.

He said it was best used for showing temporal distribution of cases or when the cases may have occurred rather than the number of cases.

“This curve shows a shape, a pattern, that allows us to understand when we would have had the highest levels of activity and when those levels of activity would have begun to decline. Again, the absolute numbers represented on this curve is actually generated from a separate data source using corroborating information.”

He said using the epidemiological curve, professionals could see a correlation between behaviours and outcomes, and understand patterns and trends.

“We can see when behaviours have the desired impact and when we’re not having the desired impact and we need to encourage individuals to continue to follow the guidelines, the rules.”

Therefore, the report was a misunderstanding of how different tools were used by the health professionals.

Hinds also gave statistics and presented charts on the number of new cases and fatalities.

He noted that 16.8 per cent of positive cases were under the age of 25, 56 per cent were between the ages of 25 and 49, 14.5 per cent were between 50 and 59, and 12.7 per cent were over 60. Also, similar to previous statistics, 53 per cent were males, and 47 per cent female.

“The relative “sparing” of the younger age groups where we see that the pyramid is constricted, it’s narrower at the bottom, there are smaller numbers at the bottom, and that constriction actually does indicate that some of the actions that we have taken to protect school children and school-aged children by sequestering them, have had the desired effect of reducing rates in those age groups.”

Of the 78 fatalities, at the time of the update, 25 per cent were female, and 75 per cent were male. Also, 59.2 per cent were in the 60 and over age group and 13.2 per cent were under 50 years old. Deaths rose to 79 as the ministry reported, in its 6 pm update, another elderly man with pre-existing condition had died.

“We do want to emphasise that does not mean persons under 50 should not be concerned about clinical outcomes. And we want to encourage everyone who has respiratory symptoms, especially if you are diagnosed with covid19, to take your symptoms seriously and to take any worsening of symptoms seriously,” said Hinds.