NACTA poll: Election outcome a close fight

WITH just over two weeks to go, the August 10 general election is shaping up to be a competitive contest between the PNM and UNC.

But the impact of the minor political parties in the election is not to be underestimated.

While some people believe the election to be a foregone conclusion for either the PNM or the UNC, the outcome may be a close fight.

But the PNM continues to have the edge over the UNC "because it is flush with campaign funds and election machinery that has a proven track record."

These are among the findings of the latest North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll.

It said the PNM enters the election with a slight edge because of the advantages of incumbency and its handling of the covid19 pandemic.

While the UNC is helped by widespread disaffection with Government on bread-and-butter issues, NACTA said its support is being eroded as many voters feel they cannot vote for some UNC candidates.

A large majority of the voters see the economy and job creation as the main issues in the election, but NACTA said neither the PNM nor the UNC is able to convince the electorate it can deal with them.

The PNM and UNC are predicted to win 15 seats each, while nine seats which could change hands.

NACTA also said the seats regarded as marginals do not qualify as such, as the PNM won many of them by 3,000 votes and more in 2015. Elsewhere, voters interviewed by NACTA "generally agree that the margin is so wide in some seats that it is very difficult to overcome." But it added that minor parties are picking up protest votes and this could have a significant outcome in some marginals.

The UNC's Saddam Hosein has not secured Barataria/San Juan for the party, despite being ahead of PNM rival Jason Williams.

NACTA said younger and first-time voters could give UNC candidate Michelle Benjamin a chance against her PNM rival Winston "Gypsy" Peters in Moruga/Tableland, which the PNM narrowly won in 2015.

In Pointe-a-Pierre, NACTA said the UNC's David Lee holds a slim lead over the PNM's Daniel Dookie.

There is also a fierce contest between the PNM and UNC for control of Chaguanas East.

In St Joseph, Health Minister Terrence Deyalsingh is praised for handling covid19. But his UNC rival Ahloy Hunt is getting support from some voters for addressing community issues.

In La Horquetta/Talparo, the UNC's Jearlean John is banking on the youth vote and neglect to win a fierce fight with the PNM's Foster Cummings.

The PNM's Marvin Gonzales maintains the lead in Lopinot/Bon Air West, but ILP's Jack Warner is picking up steam in a battle which also includes the UNC's Prakash Williams.

Voters agree that PNM political leader Dr Keith Rowley has proven superior to his UNC counterpart Kamla Persad-Bissessar in how TT has been able to deal with covid19. NACTA said Rowley earns praise from a majority of voters for minimising the number of victims of covid19 in TT "with tough anti-infection measures."

But it said the UNC has been fighting back nationally and gaining popular support, and is giving the PNM a battle in key swing constituencies.

While Rowley holds the advantage over her with respect to covid19, NACTA said Persad-Bissessar " is praised for compassion and motherly instincts in helping people to cope during this most difficult period."