Hard questions to answer on oil and gas

KEVIN RAMNARINE was on the campaign trail on Thursday night at a UNC virtual meeting, but he raised a point that demands further exploration as the electorate listens to candidates vying to form the next government.

Mr Ramnarine worried that the declines in the TT economy made us one of the worst-performing economies in the world, and lumped the country in with Venezuela, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon and Puerto Rico.

That's cherry-picking comparisons of economic indicators. The management of the economy, while clearly in need of greater liberalisation and relaxation of government controls and intervention, has not been disastrous – but it has been stifling to the point of encouraging stagnation.

There are hard realities to consider. Eight of the 20 plants at Point Lisas have closed either because of price drops in the global markets or increases in the price of our natural gas; some because of both.

Oil and natural gas production have declined even as prices collapsed. Foreign reserves have dropped by almost half, Mr Ramnarine reported, from May 2015-May 2020: a drop from $10.8 billion to $6.9 billion.

Mr Ramnarine might have been cruel to describe the policies of the current government as “rain dance economics,” but successive deficit budgets have been based on projections for oil and gas income that have been uniformly over-optimistic.

In facing an uncertain future, politicians must acknowledge an economy that flatlined in 2019 and is likely to contract by as much as five per cent in 2020.

Both major parties will be talking about the wonderful futures that lie ahead when they form the next government.

That’s not good enough.

The election of August 10 is a watershed moment for TT and our governance choices will have a profound effect on the next five years of national development.

What’s needed now is not castles in the air, aspirations underpinned by wishful thinking, but realistic and achievable strategies that acknowledge the reality of our economic circumstances and build on our assets and potential.

Discussions of diversification must go beyond the vague promises that have characterised past elections and administrations for decades.

Party manifestos must emphasise straightforward, understandable plans to navigate a sustainable path into the future with benchmarks and accountability embedded in their execution.

Oil and gas are not done, but as assets, they are in a severe and potentially irrevocable decline.

Their future value must be as engines to drive new business opportunities and build new opportunities for an empowered private sector.

The speeches from the political pulpit and formal statements of purpose must offer strategies for economic investment and growth that are rooted in the identifiable capabilities of this nation.