NACTA: UNC facing pressure in marginals

THE Opposition United National Congress (UNC) is facing pressure in some marginal constituencies it must win or retain to win this year's general election, according to the findings of a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll.

The UNC is losing ground to the People's National Movement (PNM) in Toco/Sangre Grande, and while gaining ground in Tunapuna, the Opposition party still has an uphill battle to remove incumbent PNM MP Esmond Forde, according to the NACTA poll which was released on Saturday. The poll was conducted by Dr Vishnu Bisram and comprised 164 respondents of Toco/Grande from last Sunday, and of 216 respondents in Tunapuna over the last two weeks. The respondents surveyed generally reflect the demographics of the constituencies and only data from likely voters are included in the findings.

The poll showed the UNC has moved from an upswing of a tie against the unpopular incumbent Toco/Sangre Grande MP Glenda Jennings-Smith, in a February poll, to a downswing, trailing, by ten per cent just a day ago. Some 75 per cent of voters in Toco/Sangre said they have never heard of UNC candidate Nabila Greene. They could not give her a favourable or unfavourable rating.

PNM candidate Roger Munroe, an alderman at the Sangre Grande Regional Corporation, is known by 90 per cent of the voters as his family runs a large business enterprise in Too/Sangre Grande. In Toco/Sangre Grande, the PNM leads UNC 42 to 32 per cent with six per cent of voters supporting the minor parties. A fifth of the voters are still undecided with many saying they are not dismissing minor parties.

In Tunapuna, Forde remains the favourite against UNC challenger David Nakhid. While Nakhid has been gaining momentum because of his celebrity status as a former national footballer, NATCA said Forde is praised for being the best MP, perhaps in the constituency’s history, and nationally during the current parliamentary term. Forde is also praised by voters for attending to constituents' issues and interacting with them.

Some dissatisfaction in Tunapuna has caused the UNC to close an 11 per cent deficit in February to only seven per cent now, since Nakhid was announced as its candidate. The PNM leads the UNC 47 to 40 per cent in Tunapuna with minor parties polling two per cent, 11 per cent of respondents undecided or refusing to disclose voter preference.The poll also showed the UNC is under pressure in Barataria/San Juan and Pointe-a-Pierre which it currently holds.

The poll showed UNC supporters are concerned about "the bleeding in support in the East-West Corridor." They are calling on the UNC's leadership to stem this trend and buttress the party's chances, through the "selection of national high profile and eminent candidates in St Augustine and Cumuto/Manzanilla and elsewhere that borders key marginal seats."

PNM and UNC voters support changes made by their parties to replace unpopular MPs in their election line-ups. UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar is commended for bringing in newer faces and youths but supporters feel the party needs to retain some of its "experienced stalwarts" in its line-up.

NATCA predicted the general election date will not be beyond September 7, the fifth anniversary of the PNM's 2015 election victory. NATCA also said the Prime Minister may want to call early elections to take advantage of favourable ratings for the handling of low covid19 infections.

The poll also said while Persad-Bissessar's challenge cannot be underrated, her fate could "very well depend on the selection of candidates in so-called ‘safe’ seats." NACTA said with the exception of UNC deputy leader Jearlean John, who was announced on June 25 as the UNC La Horquetta/Talparo candidate, the UNC candidates contesting other marginal seats "are neophytes with no political experience."