Analysts: Election in late August/early Sept

AS of Monday the PNM had chosen prospective candidates for 40 out of the 41 seats in TT, bar La Brea, raising the prospect that the UNC could be left behind in screening, if an early general election is called.

Two political analysts reckoned the Prime Minister would call the election sooner rather than later, but did not think the UNC would be adversely affected.

Newsday asked if PNM general secretary Foster Cummings, in a recent I95.5 FM radio interview, had inadvertently hinted at an early election date by saying no candidate could run in an election if he or she were outside TT and neither would the party screen such a person, even as former senator Pennelope Beckles rushed back from New York to successfully screen as Arima prospective candidate.

Analyst Dr Bishnu Ragoonath had not detected any such hints in Cummings’ words but rather had discerned two likely dates by way of his own assessment.

While saying the polls must be held before December 23, he himself favoured August 24 or September 7.

With the SEA exam due on August 20, Ragoonath said it would be highly unethical to hold an election before this date.

“The next date available is Monday, August 24.” He ruled out Monday, August 31 as it will be Independence Day.

“Then the following Monday is September 7.” Ragoonath also liked September 7 as it was the fifth anniversary of Dr Rowley’s victory to become prime minister in the 2015 general election. “My feeling is that these politicians are very superstitious, so his superstition will come into play and he will want to have it on September 7.”

Ragoonath also factored in the new school year after the covid19 lockdown.

“If you want to have the election before the reopening of school it will have to be August 24 and if you want to go after the opening of school, then September 7.”

He said school was due to reopen on September 1.

With these two possible election dates, Newsday asked if the UNC now has enough time to screen candidates to catch up with the PNM.

Ragoonath said the UNC is contesting 39 seats (not the two seats in Tobago) and has announced about 11 candidates. “In those constituencies deemed marginal they should have had candidates there a long time pounding the pavement. I can’t speak for them.”

He viewed the marginal seats as Moruga/Tableland, San Fernando West, Barataria/San Juan, St Joseph and Tunapuna.

Noting the recent choice of ex-footballer David Nakhid for Tunapuna plus candidates for two other seats, Ragoonath said the only two marginals the UNC needs candidates for are Barataria/San Juan and Toco/Sangre Grande. He recalled the late candidacy of the UNC's Wayne Munroe in 2015.

“I’m looking at an election two months away, in which time they probably think they could make up ground.”

He said he had no insights as to the UNC’s activities on the ground.

Dr Winford James saw election day as being in late August, to leave time for the  budget afterwards.

“It seems Dr Rowley can’t go beyond August, and lay the budget in September.”

He thought the relationship between election and budget dates was more influential than any signals people might read from Cummings’ remarks about the need for Beckles to be in TT by a certain time.

James saw another reason for the election not to be pushed too far back: the daily public platform afforded to the government in televised briefings on the covid19 pandemic.

“The Government may want to look at the success of its handling of covid19. It won’t be like that all the time. You beat the iron while it’s hot.”

James also reckoned the Government will be helped by its award of social relief during the lockdown.

“The way they handled the economic relief is praiseworthy in many respects. They’ve come with relief and saved a lot of people. That might be an advantage to ride on while you have it.”

Newsday asked if the UNC was napping on the job by trailing the PNM in candidate selection.

“It seems to me that they are watching the PNM and taking their cue,” James said. “They have not done as many screenings as the PNM but they still have time, as we are now in June. They can finish their screenings in June and still have time.”

He noted that some top UNC politicians like Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Senator Anita Haynes have not yet been screened.

“They have time, but are moving a bit slower than expected. They have enough time but could have been a bit further advanced.”

UNC deputy leader Jearlean John told Newsday she rejected any idea that the party will be caught with its pants down by the election date.

“Where are you getting that?” she asked. “The UNC is working.”

John said she was then and there doing a walkabout among people, but that the UNC is not always in the cameras like a movie star.

“Do not underestimate the UNC. We are doing our work quietly and very humbly.”

John said in the last local government election the PNM had been caught with its political pants down.