Carrot and stick

POLICY options open to any government tend to fall somewhere along the carrot-and-stick spectrum. You can give people incentives, attempt to exert moral suasion, or you can come down heavy with the brute force of the law. There are advantages and disadvantages to each. In some contexts one will be preferable over another, and at some moments a combination of both therapies is advisable. For the covid19 pandemic, it seems the time has come to veer away from the carrot and move towards the stick.

Though representative of a specific snapshot in time, the findings of a recent data analysis by Market Facts and Opinion (MFO) represent a worrying baseline in relation to the general attitude of the TT population to covid19. MFO found that TT was the least compliant of five Caribbean territories when it comes to staying home – and people also appeared to be going to work more during the period February 16-March 29 – which was just before intensification of stay-at-home measures.

It cannot be denied that, generally, the population is complying. At the same time, anecdotal evidence suggests some activity persists, some of which may not be essential. Health Minister Terrence Deyalsingh has spoken about the flow of traffic into Port of Spain daily, National Security Minister Stuart Young has disclosed reports of people taking children outdoors, police officers, like one who spoke with Newsday on Tuesday, noted people moving around the capital even after the closure of restaurants. All show there is still enough activity to merit concern.

Such activity might reflect the fact that the approach has been to be relatively compassionate when it comes to enforcing the law, giving wrongdoers opportunities to comply after warnings and sparing prisons of overcrowding. That should change.

Today, Good Friday, is a day that traditionally kicks off the long Easter weekend. Yet all religious observances will fall under the shadow of this crisis, as the sun itself was darkened at the moment of Christ’s crucifixion according to the Gospel of Luke. But no matter one’s faith, this should be an opportunity for all to take stock of what has transpired over the last few weeks and to start to formulate approaches to the next 100 days, even if the situation remains fluid.

It seems there is good reason to learn lessons from countries such as New Zealand, where heavy enforcement reportedly played a hand in more favourable outcomes. The country had yet to record a single death, but when cases reached 100 Jacinda Ardern urged citizens to stay home, warning them models showed thousands could die.

“I will not take that chance,” she said. “We’re going hard and we’re going early.”

Wealthy nations could afford to do this very abruptly. The question now is whether, given the balance of factors, the time has come for escalated enforcement in this country. We think it has.