NACTA: Unpredictable outcomes in marginals

THE outcomes in marginal seats in the December 2 local government elections are unpredictable. The PNM seems set to win eight local government corporations, the UNC could win three, two corporations could be won by either party, and there could be a tie in another corporation.

These were some of the findings in a North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) poll released on Thursday.

NACTA said the stakes for these elections are high, since they are seen as a forerunner to next year's general election.

The poll was done by Dr Vishnu Bisram. Voters were interviewed at random to reflect the demographics of the population in selected constituencies and corporations.

The poll found voters are displeased with both major parties, with apathy running very high. While voters are disenchanted with PNM governance, they have indicated the UNC is not an attractive alternative.

No smaller party or independent candidate stands any chance of winning any seat.

While the PNM is making a considerable effort to win control of the Chaguanas Borough and Mayaro/Rio Claro Regional Corporations, NACTA said it does not pose a serious challenge to take these corporations away from the UNC.

In Sangre Grande, the PNM has the momentum to retain the four seats it holds in that corporation and maybe add two more. The likeability of the PNM's candidates in the latter two seats pose a problem for the UNC because of the unpopularity of its candidates in those seats. But NACTA added the PNM could run short in capturing them.

The UNC needs to retain its four seats and win one more seat to take control of the corporation. The poll added the UNC's task win Sangre Grande is turning out to be a very hard, though not impossible task.

On the flip side, PNM candidates are likeable, but the government is on the defensive over rising unemployment among the youths and widespread disgruntlement with governance.

In Siparia, UNC seems safe in four seats and needs to retain the marginal seat of Rousillac/Otaheite to retain control of the corporation.

NACTA said in both Siparia and Grande, any outcome can play.

NACTA said the PNM is set to retain the Tunapuna/Piarco Regional Corporation, with the UNC at best being able to win four seats. But NACTA also said the UNC has been making voter gains in each of the seats in this corporation.

The UNC faces an uphill task to retain the Barataria seat it won in last August's by-election. But NACTA said if the voter turnout on December 2 is high in this seat, it is not impossible for the UNC to win it.

The PNM and UNC may end up with an almost equal number of vote, NACTA said. But, it added, the PNM will win substantially more seats and corporations than the UNC.

Whoever brings out their supporters has a better chance to win the closely fought seats and by extension the corporations.