Hosein’s mid-year budget review wishlist

ECONOMIST Dr Roger Hosein believes Atlantic’s Train One prospects will be high on the agenda when Finance Minister Colm Imbert gives his mid-year budget review on Monday. In an interview with Newsday, Hosein said given the expected implications on the economy after BPTT’s surprise update last week that four of its wells drilled in the Columbus Basin over Easter were dry, it was likely Imbert would raise a comment about the supply of gas to Train One, including fiscal incentives to increase flow from another company or if the project will ultimately be mothballed.

The second thing Hosein hoped to see was a deeper explanation from the minister about the immigration process, especially for Venezuelans. The government will begin the registration process of Venezuelans in TT at the end of this month, and will issue work permits for up to a year for those who meet all necessary criteria. Hosein suggested it be possible to sectorally direct Venezuelan labour to manufacturing or other labour-intensive industries. This new source of labour could provide the opportunity for the country to save on foreign exchange because of import substitutions or else niche export opportunities. Agriculture Minister Clarence Rambharat had recently made a similar suggestion, noting that Venezuelan labour in agriculture, especially cocoa, could help transform the sector.

Third on Hosein’s wish list was for the minister to address the crime situation because the population has been uneasy, especially given the recent spate of murders in the country.

“(I would like to hear) if there’s any additional intervention we have not heard about that could be deployed to help the Commissioner of Police (Gary Griffith) and other policymakers in their drive to bring the situation more under control.” Money, however, seems to be what the TTPS needs more than anything, with Griffith claiming that the TTPS has had to divert money for special projects to pay off outstanding debts because it has not been able to get its total allocation from the Finance Ministry. Imbert has given Griffith the assurance that the ministry will work with the TTPS as a matter of priority.

Overall though, Hosein hopes for some sort of policy direction for economic stimulus. He welcomed the International Monetary Fund’s recent affirmation that TT’s economy had started showing growth in 2017 and grew in 2018, but he wanted clarification on what the actual amount was, and where it came from, notably the proportion attributed to the non-energy sector. “The long term economic growth rate for TT from 2008-2018 was -0.11 per cent so if it is that economic growth has returned to TT, we welcome it… Regardless of amount given, that the period was characterised by an overall annual average negative growth. We need to work harder and wiser to ensure there is sustainable growth for the TT economy.”