Growth for TT in 2019

THE closure of state oil company Petrotrin is not having a negative impact on TT’s economy which is projected to grow next year.

Coordinator of the Economic Development Unit of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Sheldon McLean, made this observation after a preliminary overview of the region’s economies for 2018 at ECLAC’s offices in Port of Spain on Thursday.

The overview was done by ECLAC executive secretary Alicia Barcena by live teleconference from Santiago, Chile. McLean said it is instructive that after two years of economic contraction, the economy returned to positive growth of 1.9 per cent this year.

This growth is expected to continue in 2019. “Despite the closure of the oil refinery of the state-owned company Petrotrin, growth is projected to be 1.6 per cent,” McLean said. He added this will be “ supported by a new natural gas project and an increased implementation of public sector investment programmes.”

He said ECLAC is working with the Government on the development of a trade and economic restructuring policy. The policy report, McLean continued, is expected to be finished in the first quarter of 2019. McLean also said a major factor which has helped the economy return to positive territory “is essentially tax revenue.” He said this year “less subsidies on products increased by over 30 per cent. McLean said this suggested this “is a consolidation initiative initiated by the Government has begun to take traction and bear fruit.”

With respect to the fiscal challenges, McLean said all Caribbean economies except Dominica experienced a decline in their public debt to GDP ratio. McLean welcomed the decision by Caricom leaders this month to increase the categories of workers who qualify under the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME).

At a meeting in Port of Spain on December 3 and 4, the leaders agreed to include agricultural workers, beauty service practitioners, barbers and security guards in the categories of skilled nationals who are entitled to move freely and seek employment in Caricom under the CSME. Barcena said economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to increase from 1.2 per cent this year to 1.7 per cent in 2019.

But she warned that Latin American and Caribbean countries will confront a complex global economic scenario in the coming years, in which less dynamic growth is expected, both for developed countries as well as emerging economies. Barcena also said on top of this there is a structural weakening of international trade, aggravated by trade tensions between the United States and China.